Working Paper

AI Persuasion, Bayesian Attribution, and Career Concerns of Decision-Makers featured image

AI Persuasion, Bayesian Attribution, and Career Concerns of Decision-Makers

This paper studies AI persuasion by distinguishing between two reasons for disagreement: attention differences, where the AI detects features the decision-maker missed, and …

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Hanzhe Li
Learning to Simulate: Generative Metamodeling via Quantile Regression featured image

Learning to Simulate: Generative Metamodeling via Quantile Regression

Stochastic simulation models effectively capture complex system dynamics but are often too slow for real-time decision-making. Traditional metamodeling techniques learn …

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L. Jeff Hong
SPARKLE: A Nonparametric Approach for Online Decision-Making with High-Dimensional Covariates featured image

SPARKLE: A Nonparametric Approach for Online Decision-Making with High-Dimensional Covariates

Personalized services are central to today's digital economy, and their sequential decisions are often modeled as contextual bandits. Modern applications pose two main challenges: …

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Wenjia Wang
Uncertainty-Adjusted Sorting for Asset Pricing with Machine Learning featured image

Uncertainty-Adjusted Sorting for Asset Pricing with Machine Learning

Machine learning is central to empirical asset pricing, but portfolio construction still relies on point predictions and largely ignores asset-specific estimation uncertainty. We …

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Yan Liu
Predicting Effects, Missing Distributions: Evaluating LLMs as Human Behavior Simulators in Operations Management featured image

Predicting Effects, Missing Distributions: Evaluating LLMs as Human Behavior Simulators in Operations Management

LLMs are emerging tools for simulating human behavior in business, economics, and social science, offering a lower‑cost complement to laboratory experiments, field studies, and …

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Runze Zhang
Staffing Under Taylor's Law: A Unifying Framework for Bridging Square-Root and Linear Safety Rules featured image

Staffing Under Taylor's Law: A Unifying Framework for Bridging Square-Root and Linear Safety Rules

Staffing rules serve as an essential management tool in service industries to attain target service levels. Traditionally, the square-root safety rule, based on the Poisson arrival …

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L. Jeff Hong
''Over-Optimizing'' for Normality: Budget-Constrained Uncertainty Quantification for Contextual Decision-Making featured image

''Over-Optimizing'' for Normality: Budget-Constrained Uncertainty Quantification for Contextual Decision-Making

We study uncertainty quantification for contextual stochastic optimization, focusing on weighted sample average approximation (wSAA), which uses machine-learned relevance weights …

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Yanyuan Wang
Asymptotic Theory for IV-Based Reinforcement Learning with Potential Endogeneity featured image

Asymptotic Theory for IV-Based Reinforcement Learning with Potential Endogeneity

In the standard data analysis framework, data is collected (once for all), and then data analysis is carried out. However, with the advancement of digital technology, …

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Jin Li
Hierarchical AI Multi-Agent Fundamental Investing: Evidence from China’s A‑Share Market featured image

Hierarchical AI Multi-Agent Fundamental Investing: Evidence from China’s A‑Share Market

We present a multi-agent, AI-driven framework for fundamental investing that integrates macro indicators, industry-level and firm-specific information to construct optimized equity …

chujun-he
Can AI Master Econometrics? Evidence from Econometrics AI Agent on Expert-Level Tasks featured image

Can AI Master Econometrics? Evidence from Econometrics AI Agent on Expert-Level Tasks

Can AI effectively perform complex econometric analysis traditionally requiring human expertise? This paper evaluates AI agents' capability to master econometrics, focusing on …

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Qiang Chen